This is almost too hard for me to believe. You would have to think we know enough to narrow down the range of possibilities a little bit. But if we really can't forecast the number of hurricanes a few months in advance, what about longer term forecasts? Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray write this:
We have suspended issuing quantitative forecasts at this extended-range lead time, since they have not proved skillful over the last 20 years. We attribute the primary reasons for the lack of skill of our early December forecast due to the breakdown of several long-term relationships that worked well in many years of hindcast data, but not in real-time forecasting.
We would never have issued a seasonal hurricane forecast that did not show significant skill on many years of hindcast data. In addition, no statistical or dynamical models have shown skill at predicting El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at this extended forecast lead time of 9-12 months. . . .
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Hurricane forecasts apparently no better than a random guess
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Oleh
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