Showing posts with label stimulus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stimulus. Show all posts
Obama declares: ‘We tried our plan -- and it worked"

Obama declares: ‘We tried our plan -- and it worked"

Is this out of touch?  From Obama's speech in Oakland, California on July 24, 2012:
But here’s the problem -- we tried that and it didn’t work. (Applause.)  It’s not what you believe, it’s not what I believe, it’s not what most Americans believe will actually make a difference.  This country was not built from the top down; it was built from the middle class out, from the bottom up.  (Applause.) That’s how we became the most prosperous nation in the history of the world.  That’s the path that you can choose for America in this election.  And that’s why I’m running for a second term as President of the United States. . . . 
Just like we’ve tried their plan, we tried our plan -- and it worked.  That’s the difference.  (Applause.)  That’s the choice in this election.  That’s why I’m running for a second term.  
When the American auto industry was on the brink of collapse, more than 1 million jobs were on the line, Governor Romney said, we should just "let Detroit go bankrupt." . . .
Evidence of a recession coming?

Evidence of a recession coming?

This is depressing. From CNBC:
. . . Estimates for the third and fourth quarters have been dropped to levels not seen since the days of the 2008 financial crisis, below even the muted 2 percent expected level of inflation.

That's an ominous recession sign for an economy that has barely managed to attain positive growth this year even with the strong level of earnings beats, according to an analysis by Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx in New York.

"Revenue estimates for the back half of 2012 have been slowly working their way lower this year," Colas said. "This trend, however, has accelerated to the downside over the past 30 days and we are fast approaching levels where these estimates are unambiguously pointing to the risk of a U.S./global recession later into 2012 and 2013." . . .

Jobs picture stalling in 10 battleground states

Jobs picture stalling in 10 battleground states

From the WSJ:
The data confirm job growth has sputtered in these states since the winter's brisk pace of job growth. . .
The basic numbers:
Unemployment rose in June in six of 10 battleground states that could play a pivotal role in the presidential election, reflecting job cuts in some cases and weak payroll growth in others. The jobless rate climbed a 10th of a percentage point last month in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia, the Labor Department said in a report released Friday. The rate held steady in three other battleground states—Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina. Ohio was the only battleground state where unemployment fell last month. Nevada's 11.6% jobless rate remained the highest of any state in the nation. The rates in North Carolina, at 9.4%, Michigan, at 8.6%, and Florida, also at 8.6%, remained stuck above the national average of 8.2%. Joblessness was far below the national rate in three of the battleground states—Virginia, with 5.7%; Iowa with 5.2%; and New Hampshire, with 5.1%. Employers cut jobs in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan and Nevada. . . .
Merrill Lynch predicts 2Q GDP at horrid 1.1% annual rate

Merrill Lynch predicts 2Q GDP at horrid 1.1% annual rate

Calculated Risk has this from Merrill Lynch:
Today’s weak retail sales report leaves Q2 GDP tracking a meager 1.1%. We expect the economy to remain weak through the rest of the year with growth of only 1.3% in Q3 and 1.0% in Q4. This translates to GDP growth of only 1.3% Q4/Q4, significantly below the Fed’s forecast of 1.9-2.4%.
Lower sales, higher inventories, falling interest rates, all point to a slowing economy. From Reuters:
U.S. retail sales fell in June for the third straight month, the longest run of consecutive drops since 2008 when the country was mired in recession. Sales slipped 0.5 percent, with declines across a wide swath of industries from electronics and cars to building supplies, the Commerce Department said on Monday. Analysts had expected a small increase. "Evidence is increasingly clear that the U.S. economy is slowing," said Jim Baird, an investment strategist at Plante Moran Financial Advisors in Kalamazoo, Michigan. The report adds to a spate of soft economic data that is raising pressure on President Barack Obama ahead of his November re-election bid. Republican challenger Mitt Romney is focusing his campaign on the weak economy, which has plagued Obama's presidency. The dollar declined against the euro and the yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds dropped to an all-time low as the data stoked worries the economy was floundering and could need more help from the Federal Reserve. U.S. stock prices san k. . . .
The JP Morgan forecast is here.
This morning we lowered our tracking of Q2 GDP growth from 1.7% to 1.4%. For some time now we have noted that our Q3 GDP call — which was already below consensus at 2.0% — had risks that were skewed to the downside. . . .
UPDATE: Economists Expect Growth in Second Quarter Was Weak 1.2%
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect real GDP to have grown at an annual rate of just 1.2% last quarter, down from the tepid 1.9% in the first quarter. The expected rate would be the slowest growth since 0.4% posted in the first quarter of 2011. . . .
UPDATE: Computer sales keep dropping.
"For the first time since 2001, client PC shipments have declined sequentially for three consecutive quarters-and have been below historical averages for the last seven quarters," AMD CEO Rory Read said during the chip supplier's second quarter earnings conference call. . . .
"Economists less optimistic as early 2012 gains wither"

"Economists less optimistic as early 2012 gains wither"

Another summer of recovery lost. From Fox News:
Economists say the sales and profit gains of early this year are disappearing, and they are increasingly pessimistic about short-term growth.

They also are gloomy because of the potential impact in the U.S. from Europe's financial crisis, the possible expiration of the Bush tax cuts in December, and the prospect of major cuts in federal spending.

A survey by the National Association for Business Economics released Monday also found less evidence of hiring, confirming the trend in recent monthly jobs reports from the government.

In the quarterly survey of 67 economists who work for companies or industry trade groups, 22 percent reported rising employment in July, down from about 30 percent in the last three surveys and 42 percent a year ago. On the positive side, only 9 percent said employment was falling. The rest said it was unchanged.

Just 39 percent of the economists surveyed reported rising sales at their companies in July, down from 60 percent in April. There was a similar trend on corporate profit margins, with 29 percent reporting rising margins in July, compared with 40 percent in April.

"The survey results suggest worsening economic conditions," said Nayantara Hensel, a business professor at National Defense University who analyzed the results for NABE. "The rising sales and profit margins experienced earlier in the year may have been short-lived." . . .

Op-ed at RealClearMarkets: Austerity Works: It's Time to Give It a Try

Op-ed at RealClearMarkets: Austerity Works: It's Time to Give It a Try

This piece is with my son Sherwin. The graphs are pretty powerful. The piece starts this way:
Austerity or growth, is that the choice facing Americans and others around the world?

The debate never seems to abate. European Union finance ministers last week gave Spain permission to delay cutting some government spending and reducing its deficit, though many such as The Economist magazine fear that even the cuts that will be made go too far. A similar decision may soon have to be made for Greece. Even though the pro-bailout parties won the June Parliamentary election, they too are asking for a two-year delay in cutting spending and reducing their budget deficit.

The Obama administration has put increasing pressure on German Chancellor Angela Merkel to ease up on Germany's austerity prescription. President Obama continually touts more government spending as the cure, and derided Republican "let's cut more" spending strategy as the cause of Europe's economic problems.

Last month, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble was having none of it, telling Obama to fix the U.S. deficit before giving Europe advice: "Herr Obama should above all deal with the reduction of the American deficit. That is higher than that in the euro zone." . . .

Washington, DC becomes known as the "recession-proof" city

Washington, DC becomes known as the "recession-proof" city

Obama has certainly achieved a remarkable recovery in one US city, and it is probably safe to say that his policies of massive government spending did make a difference here. Taking money from the rest of the country and moving it to Washington, DC certainly did help the local economy, though at the expense of everyone else. From Fox News:
The City Hall corruption comes amid years of prosperity in which the nation’s capital became known as a nearly recession-proof city and a preferred market for such celebrity chefs and restaurateurs as Mike Issabella.

The changes mark a long road of success since the 1990s -- when the city, in part because of the crack epidemic, became known as “the murder capital.” Today the murder rate is at a roughly 40-year low. . . .

Now they tell us: Obama DOE Official says Loan Program to Solyndra and Abound Solar Wasn't About Job Creation

Obama Department of Energy official: "By definition, they are not a multiplier for job creation."

Obviously Vice President Biden got the wrong memo about whether these stimulus loans were supposed to create jobs.

. . . And I'm really happy, along with the Secretary, to announce today that we've closed a $535 million loan guarantee for Solyndra, more than half a billion dollars. This is the first in what the Secretary is going to be announcing the Department of Energy will be making available for more than $30 billion in loan guarantees the Recovery Act is providing and will provide to American companies that are leading the way to a new, clean energy future.

The loan to Solyndra will allow you to build a new manufacturing facility and with it almost immediately generate 3000 new well paying construction jobs. And once your facility opens, there will be about 1000 permanent new jobs here at Solyndra and in the surrounding business community and hundreds more to install your growing output of solar panels throughout the country.

It's important. It's important because these jobs are going to be permanent jobs. These are the jobs of the future. These are the green jobs. These are the jobs that won't be exported. These are the jobs that are going to define the 21st Century and the jobs that are going to allow America to compete and to lead like we did in the 20th Century. . . .

Even Obama apparently misunderstood what his project was supposed to do. This ripple effect on jobs sure sounds like a multiplier claim. From the White House website:

. . . So that’s why we’ve placed a big emphasis on clean energy. It’s the right thing to do for our environment, it’s the right thing to do for our national security, but it’s also the right thing to do for our economy.

And we can see the positive impacts right here at Solyndra. Less than a year ago, we were standing on what was an empty lot. But through the Recovery Act, this company received a loan to expand its operations. This new factory is the result of those loans.

Since the project broke ground last fall, more than 3,000 construction workers have been employed building this plant. Across the country, workers -- (applause) -- across the country, workers in 22 states are manufacturing the supplies for this project. Workers in a dozen states are building the advanced manufacturing equipment that will power this new facility. When it’s completed in a few months, Solyndra expects to hire a thousand workers to manufacture solar panels and sell them across America and around the world. (Applause.)

And this in turn will generate business for companies throughout our country who will create jobs supplying this factory with parts and materials. So there’s a ripple effect. It’s not just localized to this area. . . .

So these steps are helping to safeguard our environment. They’re helping to lower our dependence on oil. At a time when people are struggling and looking for work, these steps are helping to strengthen our economy and create jobs. We all know how important that is, because times here in California are still tough. It’s going to take time to replace the millions of jobs we lost in this recession.

Unemployment remains high, even though the economy is growing and has started adding hundreds of thousands of jobs each month. So it took years to dig our way into this hole; we’re not going to dig our way out overnight. But what you are proving here -- all of you, collectively -- is that as difficult as it will be, as far as we’ve got to go, we will recover. We will rebuild. We will emerge from this period of turmoil stronger than ever before. . . .

Newest Fox News piece: The truth about Obama's tax cut extension plan

My newest piece starts this way:
Politics, not economics, is driving President Obama's election year strategy to force a battle over his efforts to raise income taxes. So much of Obama's speech Monday focused on his political opponents and the difference between those whom he claims support the middle class and those who support what Obama continually called "the wealthy."
For an administration that last week blamed Fox News for the class warfare rhetoric, Obama's talk today sure contained a lot of such rhetoric.
But contrast Obama's position with that of other prominent Democrats. Just last month, his former chief economic advisor Larry Summers told MSNBC: "The real risk to this economy is on the side of slow down, certainly not on the side of overheating, and that means we've got to make sure that we don't take gasoline out of the tank at the end of this year that's gotta be the top priority." Former Democratic President Bill Clinton made a similar claim warning against tax increases because it is better to "avoid doing anything that would contract the economy now." Under Obama administration pressure both quickly retracted their statements.
Obama seem oblivious to Summers' and Clinton's concerns about the poorly performing economy. . . . .
Brit Hume has an excellent response here.

To Obama government money comes out of thin air


Obama on June 1, 2012 in Golden Valley, MN: I assume there are some folks here who could use $3,000 a year. Let's get that done right now. That means they're going to be -- you know, if you have $3,000 a year extra, that helps you pay down your credit cards, that helps you go out and buy some things that your family needs, which is good for business. Maybe somebody will be replacing some thingamajig for their furnace. They've been putting that off. But if they got that extra money, they might just go out there and buy that thing, right? . . .
Obama fails to understand that the money has to come from someplace. If government takes the money from some people and gives to others, why will that increase total spending.  If you put your pay check in the bank, either you spend it on the mortgage or car or food or the bank buys bonds or lends out the money.  To believe the typical MPC argument you would have to believe that saving is the equivalent to throwing money in a hole in the backyard. 
For only the fifth time in 33 years weekly wages have fallen over the last year

For only the fifth time in 33 years weekly wages have fallen over the last year

The BLS finds that weekly wages dropped over the year by 1.7 percent to $955 in the fourth quarter of 2011 from a high of $971 in the fourth quarter of 2010.

The U.S. average weekly wage decreased over the year by 1.7 percent to $955 in the fourth quarter of 2011. This is one of only five declines in the history of the series which dates back to 1978. (See Technical Note.) This is the only quarter in which the average weekly wage decline occurred while employment grew over the year and total wages decreased (-0.5 percent). Smaller bonus payments in the fourth quarter of 2011 contributed to the decrease in the average weekly wage. In contrast, the average weekly wage declines posted in the first two quarters of 2009 resulted from significant declines in both employment and wages. During this period, total wage declines were 5.0 percent or more, while employment losses were above 3.0 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2011, Olmsted, Minn., had the largest over-the-year decrease in average weekly wages with a loss of 21.3 percent. Within Olmsted, a total wage decline of $287.3 million (-29.1 percent) in the education and health services industry had the largest impact on the county’s decrease in average weekly wages. . . . 

Abound Solar declares bankruptcy


Just this week Abound Solar announced it was declaring bankruptcy.
Abound Solar, a solar panel maker that received a $400 million loan guarantee from the federal government, announced on Thursday that it would file for bankruptcy amid plummeting prices and intense competition from Chinese manufacturers in the solar equipment market.
The failure of Abound, which tapped about $68 million of the loan guarantee before the Energy Department cut off its credit last September, comes after the collapse last year of Solyndra, another high-tech solar panel maker that had received federal funds. . . .
Abound Solar, of Loveland, Colo., with manufacturing in Tipton, Ind., had been struggling for months. In February, it announced it was closing its factory to conserve resources while it tried to start production of a more advanced product. The company produced panels that made electricity directly from sunlight using a chemistry called cadmium telluride, which was intended to have a cost advantage over the more common silicon cells. But that cost advantage eroded as silicon cells plunged in price.
Abound said it would file for bankruptcy next week and dismiss its 125 employees. . . .
Germany won't back down on its austerity plans

Germany won't back down on its austerity plans

German is holding firm.  It is amusing to see that they are starting to speak down to Obama in the same way that he has constantly been lecturing them.  Are they behaving irrationally?   From Der Spiegel:

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble rebuffed recent criticism of Germany's handling of the euro crisis from Barack Obama, telling the US president to get his own house in order before giving advice.
"Herr Obama should above all deal with the reduction of the American deficit. That is higher than that in the euro zone," he told German public broadcaster ZDF on Sunday night. It is easy to give advice to others, he added,Obama, worried about the impact of the debt crisis on the global economy and financial markets -- and on his own prospects for re-election --has been urging Europe to step up its efforts to tackle the problem.
In the interview, Schäuble also reiterated his opposition to euro bonds, saying countries must remain individually liable for their public debt as long as they were taking sovereign decisions on how the money was being spent.
"If you spend the money from my account, you won't be frugal with the money," said the finance minister. He added that he was against devoting large sums of money -- for example from the European Central Bank -- to fight the crisis. The roots of the crisis needed to be fought credibly, he said, adding that that was succeeding in Ireland and Portugal, which have both received international bailouts. "It's not succeeding so well in Greece," he added. . . .
UPDATE: George Soros weighs in an interview with Der Spiegel:

'A Tragic, Historical Mistake by the Germans'With the EU summit set to start on Thursday, pressure is on European leaders to find a way out of the euro crisis. Investor George Soros is pessimistic that a solution will be found and says time is extremely short. In an interview with SPIEGEL ONLINE, he warns that Germany could develop into a hated, imperial power.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: In Germany, once the motor of European integration, people are openly discussing the possibility of leaving the euro zone. Many Germans believe that a return to the deutschmark would be cheaper than to remain stuck in a flawed currency union. Are they right?
Soros: There is no question that a breakup of the euro would be very damaging, very costly, both financially and politically. And the biggest loss would be incurred by Germany. Germans have to bear in mind that, effectively, they have suffered practically no losses so far. Transfers have all been in the form of loans, and it is only when the loans are not repaid that real losses will be incurred. 

Here is a question: why exactly would countries returning to their own currencies be so bad?  Here are the 10 EU countries who are not using the Euro.
United Kingdom Bulgaria Czech Rep. Denmark Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Romania Sweden
Are they doing worse relative to other countries?  It is hard to see how that is the case.  Poland for example has done very well without being in the Euro and so has Germany.  The difference between countries seems to depend a lot more on whether the countries followed an austerity type policy, with those controlling government spending doing much better.

62% of Americans feel that we are in a recession

62% of Americans feel that we are in a recession

A new Rasmussen poll is depressing.
Sixty-two percent of Americans feel the country has slid into a recessiona Rasmussen Reports poll finds.
Meanwhile broader confidence in the economy continues to fall.
The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures consumer confidence on a daily basis, dropped three points on Sunday to 84.9. The index is down a point from a week ago, down two points from one month ago and down four points from three months ago. . . .
Interview with National Review on my new book "Debacle"

Interview with National Review on my new book "Debacle"

My interview with National Review starts this way:

John R. Lott Jr. and Grover G. Norquist are the authors of Debacle: Obama’s War on Jobs and Growth and What We Can Do Now to Regain Our Future. Lott, a former colleague of the president’s at the University of Chicago Law School, answers some questions about the depth of the debacle and the way out from National Review Online’s Kathryn Jean Lopez.

KATHRYN JEAN LOPEZ: John, you say that when you were a faculty colleague of Barack Obama, he tagged you as “the gun guy” and announced that “I don’t believe people should be able to own guns.” That can’t possibly be true. Why should we believe you?

JOHN R. LOTT JR.: Well, don’t just take my word for his views on guns, look at the positions Obama took on guns during his time in Chicago. Obama supported a ban on handguns in 1996, and a ban on the sale of all semiautomatic guns in 1998 (a ban that would have encompassed the vast majority of guns sold in the U.S.). In 2004, he advocated banning gun sales within five miles of a school or park (essentially a ban on virtually all gun stores), and he has worked in other ways to support bans. He was on the board of directors for the Joyce Foundation, the largest private funder of research to ban gun ownership in the U.S. . . .
"$9 Billion in ‘Stimulus’ for Solar, Wind Projects Made 910 Final Jobs -- $9.8 Million Per Job"?

"$9 Billion in ‘Stimulus’ for Solar, Wind Projects Made 910 Final Jobs -- $9.8 Million Per Job"?

CNSNews has this report:

The Obama administration distributed $9 billion in economic “stimulus” funds to solar and wind projects in 2009-11 that created, as the end result, 910 “direct” jobs -- annual operation and maintenance positions -- meaning that it cost about $9.8 million to establish each of those long-term jobs.
At the same time, those green energy projects also created, in the end, about 4,600 “indirect” jobs – positions indirectly supported by the annual operation and maintenance jobs -- which means they cost about $1.9 million each ($9 billion divided by 4,600).
Combined (910 + 4,600 = 5,510), the direct and indirect jobs cost, on average, about $1.63 million each to produce. . . .

Estonia doing well with "austerity" budgets, and Spain is not an example of "austerity"

Paul Krugman, the guy who kept predicting disaster for Germany's austerity program, has gone after Estonia for what he calls being the "poster child for austerity defenders."


There are a couple of things that Krugman leaves out of his discussion.


1) Estonia was getting worse relative to other countries when it followed more of a Keynesian policy and has been growing relative to other countries since then.  Figure from The Global Post (click to make larger).  As that publication wrote: "Still, its recovery, after implementing austerity, is intriguing."  By the way, the publication also accuses Krugman of cherry picking data to show.


2) As the Figure above shows, Estonia has been growing relative to the US since mid 2009.


Note on Spanish "austerity."  Spain is in a lot of trouble, but it isn't because of "austerity."  From the WSJ.com.
In 2011, total public-sector spending in Spain was 13% higher than in 2007. . . .

Newest Fox News Op-ed: Two mistakes in Obama's press conference last week

My newest Fox News piece starts this way:

“The private sector is doing fine. Where we're seeing weaknesses in our economy have to do with state and local government,” President Obama claimed on Friday. His solution to fix the public sector was more government spending.
When people started screaming, Obama clarified his remarks and said “It’s absolutely clear economy is not doing fine,” but he just couldn’t bring himself to disown his statement about the private sector generally doing “fine.” His clarification still asserted that there is “good momentum in the private sector.” But private sector employment growth has fallen in each of the last four months, reaching a pitiful 82,000 in May.
President Obama is also wrong about his other claim that state and local governments are doing poorly relative to the private sector. . . .