Data is from January 20, 2009 to October 15, 2010
Variables used in Regression
ProbIntradeHouseRep - Intrade Prob of Republicans taking control of House
ProbIntradeSenatetotal - Intrade Prob of Republicans or Neither party taking control of Senate
stronglydisapprove - from Rasmussen Daily Tracking Survey
UnempRate - Unemployment Rate from BLS
cpi - Consumer Price Index
GDP - Gross Domestic Product
consumerconfidence - University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey
There is a lot of correlation between the Intrade Prob of Republicans taking control of House, the Intrade Prob of Republicans or Neither party taking control of Senate, and the percent of likely voters who strongly disapprove of Obama in the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Survey.
Note: There is a lot of correlation between ProbIntradeHouseRep, ProbIntradeSenatetotal, and stronglydisapprove.
Correlation between ProbIntradeHouseRep ProbIntradeSenatetotal is 0.7642
Correlation between ProbIntradeHouseRep stronglydisapprove is 0.7447
Because of that collinearity, I also just reran the political variables by themselves.
Variables used in Regression
ProbIntradeHouseRep - Intrade Prob of Republicans taking control of House
ProbIntradeSenatetotal - Intrade Prob of Republicans or Neither party taking control of Senate
stronglydisapprove - from Rasmussen Daily Tracking Survey
UnempRate - Unemployment Rate from BLS
cpi - Consumer Price Index
GDP - Gross Domestic Product
consumerconfidence - University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey
There is a lot of correlation between the Intrade Prob of Republicans taking control of House, the Intrade Prob of Republicans or Neither party taking control of Senate, and the percent of likely voters who strongly disapprove of Obama in the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Survey.
Note: There is a lot of correlation between ProbIntradeHouseRep, ProbIntradeSenatetotal, and stronglydisapprove.
Correlation between ProbIntradeHouseRep ProbIntradeSenatetotal is 0.7642
Correlation between ProbIntradeHouseRep stronglydisapprove is 0.7447
Because of that collinearity, I also just reran the political variables by themselves.
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Stock prices and the probability that Republicans will take control of Congress
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Oleh
abudzar
