Here are my election predictions. The Republicans are going to keep the House and the Senate. My guess is that the Republicans will lose 12 seats in the House and no more than 1 in the Senate. I would not be surprised that Republicans break even or even pick up one seat in the Senate. I think that Republicans will lose Ohio, but could pick up Michigan and even more likely Maryland. A Steele in Maryland win will make the evening a great one all by itself.
UPDATE: Well, I was wrong. It isn't much solace that there were a lot of very close races (e.g., the Senate races in Montana, Missouri, and Virginia). Just a switch of a few tenths of a percentage point in those three races would have meant a Republican loss of three seats. According to Sean Hannity, eighteen of the House seats were decided by less than 5,000 votes. Four or five were decided by less than a thousand votes. Well, in any case, I was wrong.
UPDATE: Well, I was wrong. It isn't much solace that there were a lot of very close races (e.g., the Senate races in Montana, Missouri, and Virginia). Just a switch of a few tenths of a percentage point in those three races would have meant a Republican loss of three seats. According to Sean Hannity, eighteen of the House seats were decided by less than 5,000 votes. Four or five were decided by less than a thousand votes. Well, in any case, I was wrong.
Going out on a limb: Predicting Tuesday's results
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Oleh
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